What will the game be like?
Unlike a typical statistics class, this game is not about calculations. The statistical calculations are done for you. This game is about interpreting statistical results and developing the mental models to reason about the world probabilistically.
It is inspired by The Oregon Trail, a classic game that lets you make a series of bad decisions and then learn from them!
What will I be able to do after playing the game?
After playing the game, you will be able to:
- Have a gut sense for what a standard deviation of 2.4 means
- Have a gut sense for what correlation coefficients of -0.4, 0.1, and 0.6 look like
- Use the correlation coefficient between two variables to make predictions of one variable based on the other
- Justify use of normal distribution models using the Central Limit Theorem
- Use a graphical form of Bayesian hypothesis testing to pick the more likely hypothesis
- Apply a z-test to determine if the difference in the sample mean is statistically different
- Interpret p-values (very carefully)
Why statistics?
There's an entire subject dedicated to explaining randomness in real life and how we can model its behavior to our advantage!
I fell in love with statistics during my time at MIT, and I want to take the concepts from serious statistics classes and pool them into a game about everyday life so they are accessible to more people.
Who are you?
I am a graduate of the MIT Computer Science Department and the MIT Media Lab. I am a freelance programmer with the World Bank working on intuitive data visualizations for rural populations. In my free time, I work on interactive stories about probability like Adventures in Cognitive Biases and The Raccoon Princess and the Fox Prince: A Bayesian Parable.
Timmy's Journey is going to be different from anything I've worked on in the past... it is going to be my first full-fledged game.
What age group is this for?
The game is for adults and kids (14+) due to the amount of logical and mathematical maturity assumed. If you are of sound mind and want to reason rigorously, this game is for you!
Is this frequentist or Bayesian statistics?
The game begins by explaining frequentist concepts since those are the concepts more prevalent in mainstream media. However, I am a trained and raised Bayesian and the game will have Bayesian hypothesis testing.
What is the Sorcerer's secret?
I am not telling yet, but it is the same as my secret...
A huge thanks to Luke Cheng (video footage), Eric Chisholm, Rachel Fong, Cory Li, Alia McCutcheon, Brienne Strohl, Carlo Fernando V, Bret Victor, Reese Von West (the orange cat), Sherwin Yu, Eliezer Yudkowsky, and Yan Zhang for making this game and campaign possible!