Summary:
There is significant public interest in the 2014 municipal election campaign in
Winnipeg. For the first time in a decade, an incumbent mayor’s name will not be
on the ballot, and a higher-than-average number of candidates have stepped
forward to compete for the city’s highest political office.
As the campaign has heated up over the summer, many have
been anxious to know how much support each of these eight candidates have among
Winnipeggers. The most recent public polls were conducted more than six months
ago, before some of the candidates entered the race. Given this intense
interest and the absence of current public opinion surveys, we want to give
Winnipeggers the opportunity to see how voters are reacting to these candidates.
But here’s the thing. Rigorously conducted scientific
surveys are costly. Organizations that have traditionally sponsored public
opinion polls are dealing with decreasing revenues, which has led them to cut
back on the amount of polling that they underwrite. Some research firms conduct
polls for the media for free, hoping to obtain publicity. The proliferation of
these surveys – many of which use questionable methodologies and/or do not
disclose important methodological information – has led to a crisis of
confidence in the market research industry. Probe Research, which is extremely
proud of its strong track record for conducting accurate and rigorous polling
during election campaigns, will not join others in this “race to the bottom” by
providing dubious survey results on the cheap.
Fortunately, we have devised a creative method of
obtaining accurate and valid survey results. We are launching Manitoba’s first-ever
“crowdfunded” survey on the Winnipeg mayoral race. By making a pledge, you will help fund a unique and innovative method of tracking
where the mayoral candidates currently stand among Winnipeggers.
The
details:
·
Project cost: $8,000
·
We are conducting an online survey of a
representative sample of 600 Winnipeg adults
·
The deadline to pledge for this survey is
August 27
·
The survey goes into field from August
28-September 4
·
The results will be released to funders by
September 10, with the results publicly released by September 12
