Hi, I'm James Kelly, and I write the pro-independence blog Scot Goes Pop. In the six years that it has been running, it's carved out a niche for itself due to its coverage of
opinion polls. Towards the end of last
year, exasperated by the misleading reporting of one or two individual polls that
showed wildly improbable leads for the No campaign, I went a step further by introducing
a Poll of Polls feature so that every new referendum poll could be placed in
a more meaningful context. I’ve since updated
the Poll of Polls every single time fresh figures are released, usually within
two or three hours. There has also been
comprehensive analysis of each individual poll, which has also typically
appeared very speedily. This has played
a small but hopefully important role in combating the misrepresentation of
polling numbers, especially on social media.
The most recent YouGov poll is a good example – John Curtice’s analysis
didn’t appear for the best part of 24 hours, so for a long spell Scot Goes Pop was the
most high-profile blog to be pointing out the simple truth that, far from being
a “setback for the Yes campaign”, the poll actually showed the slimmest No lead
of the campaign so far.
There is now at least one mainstream media outlet and another semi-mainstream outlet that
publish their own Poll of Polls, and that is an extremely welcome
development. Unfortunately, both of them
use what in my view is a flawed method - a rolling average of the last six or
seven polls to be published, regardless of whether the polls were conducted by
Yes-friendly pollsters (such as Panelbase) or No-friendly pollsters (such as Ipsos-Mori). That will lead to gross distortions in the
trends that are reported, as we’ve already seen when the appearance of the last
YouGov poll led to a 2% increase in the No lead in the Financial Times Poll of
Polls, in spite of the fact that it had actually shown a modest drop in the No
lead. So the Scot Goes Pop Poll of Polls
still has an important role to play in accurately reflecting the real trends.
I would very much like to carry on covering the polls in the
way that I have been doing over the last few months, and indeed to step up my
efforts even further (which will certainly be necessary, because the rate at
which polls appear is bound to increase significantly as referendum day approaches). Unfortunately, though, my personal
circumstances are changing, and as things stand it’s simply not going to be
possible for me to carry on as before.
Writing this blog isn’t the equivalent of a full-time job, but it’s
certainly the equivalent of a relatively heavy-going part-time job. It’s very common for me to stay up half the
night writing posts. I don’t mind doing
that in the slightest, but unfortunately I can’t do it if the time isn’t
available! I’m not suggesting that Scot
Goes Pop will end completely, but it will probably be reduced to a ‘skeleton
service’, with perhaps a brief round-up now and again.
However, before I resign myself to that outcome, I’m going to try the
alternative – an appeal to raise enough funds for me to be able to carry on as
before, and hopefully to ‘expand operations’ even further. I’m setting what I openly admit is an
extremely ambitious target of £2500.
There’s very little point in setting it much lower than that, because
that’s probably the minimum amount that would be required to make the plan work
properly over the four-month period between now and the referendum.
There seems to be a convention of doing a Q&A when
launching a fundraiser like this, so here goes –
Why is it important for the pro-independence blogosphere to
cover opinion polls?
I think there’s a myopia among some (not all) Yes supporters
about this subject. One of the main
factors that has held some voters back from seriously engaging with the Yes
campaign’s arguments is their sense that it is either unlikely or impossible
for us to win. That impression is
entirely driven by misreporting of opinion polls in the mainstream media, and
it needs to be combated. You can’t do it
with throwaway lines such as “the polls are all biased” or “the only poll that
matters is on September the 18th” – that sounds weak beyond belief,
and simply reinforces the original impression in voters’ minds. It instead has to be done by taking the
polling numbers seriously, and explaining what they really mean.
Even if this is important, why is it more important than any
of the other pro-independence causes I could donate to?
I don’t think it is.
Nobody is more desperate than I am to see a Yes victory, and I’ve been
extremely conflicted about whether to launch this fundraiser, because I hate
the idea of ‘diverting’ even a single penny that might be better spent
elsewhere. But the beauty of an appeal
like this is that you can decide for yourself what will give you the best bang
for your buck. If you personally think
Scot Goes Pop’s coverage of the polls can play a significant role, you have the
option to donate – but it’s only an option.
How many people actually see Scot Goes Pop’s coverage of the
polls?
Over the last twelve months, there have been roughly 50,000
unique visitors to the site (ie. real people, only counted once no matter how
many times they visited). Approximately
50% of them were in Scotland, meaning that 1 in 200 of the Scottish population
have visited the site at least once in the last year. If the current trajectory continues, the
numbers are likely to increase significantly in the run-up to polling day.
Could you use online advertising to boost those numbers even
further?
Yes, if the fundraiser exceeds the target figure, that’s
most likely how I would use any excess funds.
Facebook advertising, for example, looks very cost-effective, and could potentially
lead to a blogpost headline and snippet being seen by hundreds of thousands of
people throughout Scotland.
Do you intend to blog full-time until the referendum if this
appeal is a success?
Not quite – I think I would become extremely jaded if I
attempted to write four or five posts every day, and that would detract from the blog. But I would certainly be looking to at least maintain
the current tempo, and probably increase it.
Is analysis of polls the only thing you do?
No! The other staple
of Scot Goes Pop over the years has been ‘fisking’ of mainstream media
commentators.
What experience do you have as a blogger/writer?
Apart from my six years writing this blog, I’ve also written
articles for the International Business Times, Political Betting, Wings Over
Scotland, National Collective, Scottish Roundup and the Eurovision Times. In the final running of the Total Politics
Blog Awards in 2011, Scot Goes Pop was voted one of the top 100 political blogs
in the UK, and as an individual blogger I was rated higher than the likes of
Peter Oborne, Adam Boulton and Kevin Maguire.
What if the amount of money raised isn't big enough to make the fundraiser worthwhile?
If
that happens, you have my solemn promise that anything raised will be given to
other pro-independence causes. The money
won’t be wasted.
If everyone who visited the blog in the last week donated just
£1, would the appeal reach its target?
Yes!
WILL everyone who visited the blog in the last week donate
£1?
Er, probably not. It’s
purely illustrative.
